Majority of US adults say democracy is on the ballot but they differ on the threat: AP-NORC poll (2024)

NEW YORK (AP) — Roughly 3 in 4 American adults believe the upcoming presidential election is vital to the future of U.S. democracy, although which candidate they think poses the greater threat depends on their political leanings, according to a poll.

The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that most Democrats, Republicans and independents see the election as “very important” or “extremely important” to democracy, while Democrats have a higher level of intensity about the issue. More than half of Democrats say the November election is “extremely important” to the future of U.S. democracy, compared to about 4 in 10 independents and Republicans.

Democrat Pamela Hanson, 67, of Amery, Wisconsin, said she has grave concerns for the future of democracy in the country if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gets elected.

“His statements tend towards him being a king or a dictator, a person in charge by himself,” Hanson said. “I mean, the man is unhinged in my opinion.”

But Republican Ernie Wagner from Liberty, New York, said it’s President Joe Biden’s administration — of which Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is a part — that has abused the power of the executive branch.

“Biden has tried to erase the student loans, and he’s been told by the courts that it’s unconstitutional to do that,” said Wagner, 85. “He’s weaponized the FBI to get at his political opponents.”

The poll findings suggest that many Democrats continue to view Trump as a threat to democracy after he tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, embraced the rioters who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and threatened to seek retribution against his opponents if he wins reelection.

But they also indicate that many of Trump’s supporters agree with him that Biden is the real threat to democracy. Trump and his allies have accused Biden of weaponizing the Justice Department as it has pursued charges against the former president over his effort to halt certification of the 2020 election and keeping classified documents, though there is no evidence Biden has had any involvement or influence in the cases.

Trump has framed himself as a defender of American values and portrayed Biden as a “destroyer” of democracy. He said multiple times after he survived an assassination attempt last month that he “took a bullet for democracy.”

The poll, conducted in the days after Biden dropped out of the race and Harris announced her campaign, is an early glimpse of Americans’ views of a reshaped contest.

Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans say democracy could be at risk in this election depending on who wins the presidency, responses generally in line with the findings when the question was last asked in an AP-NORC poll in December 2023.

Hanson, the Wisconsin Democrat, said she worries Trump in a second term would use the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court to overrule important freedoms. She also is concerned that he would fill his Cabinet with loyalists who don’t care about the well-being of everyone in the country and defund agencies that regulate key functions of society.

But Wagner, the New York Republican, brushed off those concerns and pointed to Trump’s time in office.

“When he was in the White House, we had peace, we had prosperity, we had energy independence,” he said. “What’s undemocratic about that?”

He said he didn’t think Trump’s intentions leading up to and on Jan. 6 were criminal.

“I just think he was misguided,” Wagner said.

Some independents also are carefully considering the stakes of the upcoming election on the country’s democratic future.

“I believe that this is the most important election of my lifetime,” said 53-year-old Patricia Seliga-Williams of LaVale, Maryland, an independent who is leaning toward voting for Harris.

Seliga-Williams said she’s barely scraping by on $15 an hour as a hotel breakfast attendant and remembers Trump handling the economy and immigration well. But she didn’t like it when he recently quipped that he plans to be a “dictator” on day one in office.

“We all know Donald Trump could run the country,” she said. “But he’s just too aggressive anymore, and I don’t think I can trust that as a voter.”

Not everyone agrees that this year’s presidential election will be an inflection point for the country’s democracy, offering starkly different reasons, according to the AP-NORC poll. About 2 in 10 Americans say democracy in the U.S. is strong enough to withstand the outcome of the election no matter who wins, while another 2 in 10 believe democracy is already so seriously broken that the outcome doesn’t matter.

The poll also shows the stakes of democracy in the election are felt more by older adults rather than younger ones. About half of adults 45 and older say the outcome of the election is extremely important for the future of democracy, compared to about 4 in 10 adults under 45.

“Making the claim that the other candidate is trying to destroy democracy, it doesn’t really land for me,” said Daniel Oliver, 26, an independent from suburban Detroit. “I think that we have things in place that should safeguard against when you kind of play at destroying democracy. We have other branches of government. We have people that believe in voting. So, it would be hard for a candidate to take over and become some kind of dictator.”

He said he’ll be looking for candidates to talk about issues he’s more interested in, such as reducing inflation and investing in clean energy sources.

Biden and Trump spent months sparring over whose second term would be worse for democracy. The president nodded to the consequences when he ended his campaign last month, saying in his Oval Office address that “the defense of democracy is more important than any title.”

Harris has focused more on the concept of “freedom” in the early days of her campaign. She has said Trump’s reelection could result in Americans losing the freedom to vote, the freedom to be safe from gun violence and the freedom for women to make decisions about their own bodies. Her debut campaign ad last month was set to Beyoncé’s 2016 track “Freedom,” and it has become a campaign anthem for her at rallies ever since.

Harris didn’t mention democracy in her first two presidential campaign rallies, but she returned to the topic in remarks to Sigma Gamma Rho sorority members in Houston last week, saying “our fundamental freedoms are on the ballot, and so is our democracy.”

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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

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